{"id":11540,"date":"2025-06-12T17:48:36","date_gmt":"2025-06-12T15:48:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\/fb02-theorie-politik\/?page_id=11540"},"modified":"2026-03-04T16:15:32","modified_gmt":"2026-03-04T15:15:32","slug":"false-consensus","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/research\/false-consensus\/","title":{"rendered":"False consensus assumptions in politics and their impact on legitimacy"},"content":{"rendered":"<jgu-base-pageheader react-props=\"{\n    &quot;items&quot;: [\n        {\n            &quot;box&quot;: {\n                &quot;index&quot;: &quot;False Consensus Beliefs in Politics and their Effects on Legitimacy&quot;,\n                &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Falsche Konsensannahmen in der Politik und ihre Auswirkungen auf Legitimit\\u00e4t&quot;,\n                &quot;link&quot;: {\n                    &quot;url&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n                    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;learn more&quot;\n                }\n            },\n            &quot;color&quot;: &quot;default&quot;,\n            &quot;image&quot;: {\n                &quot;url&quot;: &quot;&quot;\n            },\n            &quot;imgCredit&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n            &quot;useVideo&quot;: false,\n            &quot;video&quot;: false\n        }\n    ],\n    &quot;type&quot;: &quot;border&quot;,\n    &quot;useBreadcrumb&quot;: true,\n    &quot;align&quot;: &quot;full&quot;,\n    &quot;quicklinks&quot;: {\n        &quot;show&quot;: false,\n        &quot;selects&quot;: []\n    }\n}\">\n<\/jgu-base-pageheader>\n\n<jgu-base-section react-props=\"{&quot;color&quot;:&quot;white&quot;,&quot;align&quot;:&quot;wide&quot;,&quot;padding&quot;:&quot;medium&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-white \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns is-layout-flex wp-container-core-columns-is-layout-9d6595d7 wp-block-columns-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\">\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Project as part of the &#8220;Big Structural Change&#8221; research group<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Term 2025-2028<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Project leader: <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/team\/univ-prof-dr-claudia-landwehr\/\">Prof. Dr. Claudia Landwehr<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Project staff: <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/team\/dr-nils-steiner\/\">Dr. Nils Steiner<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/yanick-gutheil\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/yanick-gutheil\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yanick Gutheil<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-column is-layout-flow wp-block-column-is-layout-flow\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><jgu-base-image react-props=\"{\n    &quot;image&quot;: {\n        &quot;url&quot;: &quot;https:\\\/\\\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\\\/fb02-theorie-politik\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/832\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/nils-claudia-fcb.jpg&quot;,\n        &quot;id&quot;: 11415,\n        &quot;alt&quot;: &quot;Auf dem Bild zu sehen sind Nils Steiner und Claudia Landwehr vor der Skyline Hamburgs. Beide tragen Pullover und l\\u00e4cheln freundlich.&quot;,\n        &quot;title&quot;: &quot;nils-claudia-fcb&quot;,\n        &quot;width&quot;: 1323,\n        &quot;height&quot;: 1343,\n        &quot;srcset&quot;: &quot;https:\\\/\\\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\\\/fb02-theorie-politik\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/832\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/nils-claudia-fcb.jpg 1323w, https:\\\/\\\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\\\/fb02-theorie-politik\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/832\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/nils-claudia-fcb-296x300.jpg 296w, https:\\\/\\\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\\\/fb02-theorie-politik\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/832\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/nils-claudia-fcb-1009x1024.jpg 1009w, https:\\\/\\\/cms.zdv.uni-mainz.de\\\/fb02-theorie-politik\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/832\\\/2025\\\/07\\\/nils-claudia-fcb-768x780.jpg 768w&quot;\n    },\n    &quot;width&quot;: 244,\n    &quot;align&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;hasLightbox&quot;: false,\n    &quot;caption&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;imgWidth&quot;: 0,\n    &quot;link&quot;: {\n        &quot;url&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n        &quot;target&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n        &quot;rel&quot;: &quot;&quot;\n    }\n}\" class=\"align-\">\n    \n<\/jgu-base-image><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/jgu-base-section>\n\n<jgu-base-section react-props=\"{&quot;color&quot;:&quot;white&quot;,&quot;align&quot;:&quot;wide&quot;,&quot;padding&quot;:&quot;medium&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-white \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\"><jgu-base-heading react-props=\"{\n    &quot;tags&quot;: {\n        &quot;htmlTag&quot;: &quot;h2&quot;,\n        &quot;classTag&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n        &quot;tag&quot;: &quot;h2&quot;\n    },\n    &quot;heading&quot;: &quot;About the project&quot;,\n    &quot;textAlign&quot;: &quot;left&quot;,\n    &quot;anchor&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;index&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;color&quot;: &quot;red&quot;\n}\"><\/jgu-base-heading>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">In line with the <em>BEL model<\/em> used in the &#8220;Big Structural Change&#8221; research group, the project examines the hypothesis that a globalized and digitalized information environment leads to selective exposure to information with regard to social preferences, resulting in false consensus beliefs. These in turn have a negative impact on the perceived legitimacy of democratic institutions, which can promote disruptive structural change (BISC). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">False consensus beliefs arise from a misperception that a majority of others share one&#8217;s opinions. While the human tendency to overestimate support for one&#8217;s own views is well documented by an extensive literature in Social Psychology, the potential consequences of this tendency for political legitimacy are largely unexplored. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">In terms of the <em>conflict-escalation hypothesis<\/em>(CEH), we assume that when individuals have false consensus beliefs, the legitimacy of political institutions, which is central to the social structure, is called into question and support for them breaks away, which can cause disruptive structural change (BISC). As a bridging project, G2 also addresses the <em>conflict-abatement hypothesis<\/em>(CAH) by investigating how false consensus beliefs can be corrected and legitimacy restored so that structural change remains incremental. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">The project examines the prevalence and correlates of false consensus beliefs using longitudinal survey data and combines these analyses with survey and laboratory experiments that enable causal identification, as well as with simulation models on the effects of false consensus beliefs on disruptive structural change. Overall, the project will provide a better understanding of the political consequences of false consensus beliefs and promises to uncover mechanisms that lead from changes in the information environment to (demand for) disruptive political change. <\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/jgu-base-section>\n\n<jgu-base-section react-props=\"{&quot;color&quot;:&quot;light&quot;,&quot;align&quot;:&quot;wide&quot;,&quot;padding&quot;:&quot;medium&quot;}\">\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-light \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\"><jgu-base-heading react-props=\"{\n    &quot;tags&quot;: {\n        &quot;htmlTag&quot;: &quot;h2&quot;,\n        &quot;classTag&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n        &quot;tag&quot;: &quot;h2&quot;\n    },\n    &quot;heading&quot;: &quot;Publications&quot;,\n    &quot;textAlign&quot;: &quot;left&quot;,\n    &quot;anchor&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;index&quot;: &quot;&quot;,\n    &quot;color&quot;: &quot;red&quot;\n}\"><\/jgu-base-heading>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">Steiner, Nils, Claudia Landwehr and Philipp Harms (2025): <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/pops.70026\">False Consensus Beliefs and Populist Attitudes, <\/a><em>Political Psychology<\/em>, DOI: 10.1111\/pops.70026<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<\/jgu-base-section>\n\n\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n    <div style=\"display: none\">\n        \n    <\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2025,"featured_media":0,"parent":11461,"menu_order":2,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[70],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11540","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry","category-research"],"content_raw":"<!-- wp:jgu\/pageheader {\"items\":[{\"box\":{\"index\":\"False Consensus Beliefs in Politics and their Effects on Legitimacy\",\"title\":\"Falsche Konsensannahmen in der Politik und ihre Auswirkungen auf Legitimit\u00e4t\",\"link\":{\"url\":\"\",\"title\":\"learn more\"}},\"color\":\"default\",\"image\":{\"url\":\"\"},\"imgCredit\":\"\",\"useVideo\":false,\"video\":false}],\"type\":\"border\",\"useBreadcrumb\":true} \/-->\n\n<!-- wp:jgu\/section {\"color\":\"white\"} -->\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-white \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\"><!-- wp:columns {\"className\":\"\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-columns\"><!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"66.66%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:66.66%\"><!-- wp:list -->\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\"><!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li>Funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG)<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li>Project as part of the \"Big Structural Change\" research group<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li>Term 2025-2028<\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li>Project leader: <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/team\/univ-prof-dr-claudia-landwehr\/\">Prof. Dr. Claudia Landwehr<\/a><\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item -->\n\n<!-- wp:list-item -->\n<li>Project staff: <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/team\/dr-nils-steiner\/\">Dr. Nils Steiner<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/yanick-gutheil\/\" data-type=\"link\" data-id=\"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/yanick-gutheil\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">Yanick Gutheil<\/a><\/li>\n<!-- \/wp:list-item --><\/ul>\n<!-- \/wp:list --><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:column -->\n\n<!-- wp:column {\"width\":\"33.33%\"} -->\n<div class=\"wp-block-column\" style=\"flex-basis:33.33%\"><!-- wp:jgu\/image {\"image\":{\"url\":null,\"id\":11415,\"alt\":\"Auf dem Bild zu sehen sind Nils Steiner und Claudia Landwehr vor der Skyline Hamburgs. Beide tragen Pullover und l\u00e4cheln freundlich.\"},\"width\":244} \/--><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:column --><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:columns --><\/div><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:jgu\/section -->\n\n<!-- wp:jgu\/section {\"color\":\"white\"} -->\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-white \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\"><!-- wp:jgu\/heading {\"tags\":{\"htmlTag\":\"h2\",\"classTag\":\"\",\"tag\":\"h2\"},\"heading\":\"About the project\"} \/-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">In line with the <em>BEL model<\/em> used in the \"Big Structural Change\" research group, the project examines the hypothesis that a globalized and digitalized information environment leads to selective exposure to information with regard to social preferences, resulting in false consensus beliefs. These in turn have a negative impact on the perceived legitimacy of democratic institutions, which can promote disruptive structural change (BISC). <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">False consensus beliefs arise from a misperception that a majority of others share one's opinions. While the human tendency to overestimate support for one's own views is well documented by an extensive literature in Social Psychology, the potential consequences of this tendency for political legitimacy are largely unexplored. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">In terms of the <em>conflict-escalation hypothesis<\/em>(CEH), we assume that when individuals have false consensus beliefs, the legitimacy of political institutions, which is central to the social structure, is called into question and support for them breaks away, which can cause disruptive structural change (BISC). As a bridging project, G2 also addresses the <em>conflict-abatement hypothesis<\/em>(CAH) by investigating how false consensus beliefs can be corrected and legitimacy restored so that structural change remains incremental. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph -->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">The project examines the prevalence and correlates of false consensus beliefs using longitudinal survey data and combines these analyses with survey and laboratory experiments that enable causal identification, as well as with simulation models on the effects of false consensus beliefs on disruptive structural change. Overall, the project will provide a better understanding of the political consequences of false consensus beliefs and promises to uncover mechanisms that lead from changes in the information environment to (demand for) disruptive political change. <\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/div><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:jgu\/section -->\n\n<!-- wp:jgu\/section {\"color\":\"light\"} -->\n<div class=\"jgu-bgsection bg bg-light \"><div class=\"content padding-medium\"><!-- wp:jgu\/heading {\"tags\":{\"htmlTag\":\"h2\",\"classTag\":\"\",\"tag\":\"h2\"},\"heading\":\"Publications\"} \/-->\n\n<!-- wp:paragraph -->\n<p class=\"has-big-font-size\">Steiner, Nils, Claudia Landwehr and Philipp Harms (2025): <a href=\"https:\/\/onlinelibrary.wiley.com\/doi\/10.1111\/pops.70026\">False Consensus Beliefs and Populist Attitudes, <\/a><em>Political Psychology<\/em>, DOI: 10.1111\/pops.70026<\/p>\n<!-- \/wp:paragraph --><\/div><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:jgu\/section -->\n\n<!-- wp:spacer {\"height\":\"50px\"} -->\n<div style=\"height:50px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n<!-- \/wp:spacer -->","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11540","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2025"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=11540"}],"version-history":[{"count":7,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11540\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13335,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11540\/revisions\/13335"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/11461"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=11540"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=11540"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/theorie.politik.uni-mainz.de\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=11540"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}